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Variations on the Theme of Mayhem:
Background Report on
Yugoslavia
© 2000 Dianne Durante
Maps
There are several useful maps of the area on the CIA Factbook site:
1. Europe at http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/reference_maps/europe.html
2. Separate maps for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (listed under "Serbia and Montenegro"), Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia and Bosnia-Hercegovina on the CIA Factbook site, hhttp://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/docs/refmaps.html
1. Overview
1.1 The basic problem of the Balkans
1.2 Format of this paper
2. Yugoslavia
2.1 Formation of Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, 1918
2.2 World War II in
2.3 Communist Yugoslavia, 1946-1980
3. Serbia
3.1 History
3.2 Milosevic
3.3 Current status, including Sept. 2000 elections
4. Vojvodina
4.1 History
4.2 Current status
5. Slovenia (independent 6/25/91)
5.1 History
5.2 Current status
6. Croatia (independent 6/25/91)
6.1 History
6.2 War with Serbia, 1991-1992 and 1995
6.3 Current status
6.4 Issue: right to secede vs. territorial integrity of existing state
7. Macedonia (independent 9/17/91)
7.1 History
7.2 Current status
8. Bosnia-Hercegovina (independent 4/92)
8.1 History
8.2 War with Croatia and Serbia, 1992-1995
8.3 Current status
9. Kosovo
9.1 History
9.2 War with Serbia, 1998-1999
9.3 Current status
10. Montenegro
10.1 History
10.2 Current status
11. Prospects for more murder & mayhem
11.1 Elections for President of Yugoslavia, Sept.-Oct. 2000
11.2 Probably peaceful:
Croatia, Slovenia,
11.3 Potential disasters:
Kosovo, Bosnia,
Terms
Yugoslavia: used here to denote the geographical area of the 6 republics and 2 provinces that comprised the Kingdom of Yugoslavia and later Communist Yugoslavia.
Kingdom of Yugoslavia: Yugoslavia from its formation in 1918 until World War II.
Communist Yugoslavia: Yugoslavia from the end of World War II until its disintegration in the early 1990s.
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia: formed in 1992 from the remains of Communist Yugoslavia; includes Montenegro, Serbia, and Serbia's 2 provinces, Vojvodina and Kosovo.
Serb: an ethnic term with racial and traditional components; a Serb is both a South Slav and a member of the Orthodox Church. An "ethnic Serb" is one who lives outside Serbia, just as an ethnic Albanian is of Albanian descent but lives outside Albania. In Yugoslavia, ethnicity takes precedence over the nation one lives in.
1. OVERVIEW Back to Table of Contents
1.1 The fundamental problem in the Balkans
Former Communist Yugoslavia, an area about the size of Oregon, saw some 200,000 deaths in the 1990s and the creation of about 4 million refugees. The ongoing bloody battles and atrocities in the area seem at first to be of bewildering complexity: Muslims against Croats, Kosovar Albanians against Kosovar Serbs, Serbs against Croats, Bosnian Croats against Bosnian Serbs.
The complexity can, however, be easily understood as an illustration of a single philosophical error: collectivism. Collectivism is the theory that a man's most important characteristic is the group he belongs to: a given race, economic class, nation, ethnic group, etc. It assumes that each individual man is merely a part of this larger entity, and cannot exist without it. It assumes that he should be judged not by his thoughts and actions as an individual, but by his value to the group.
Because of the turbulent history of the Balkans, collectivism in Yugoslavia comes in two flavors. The first is race, ranging from conflicts between various tribes of Slavs (Croats, Serbs, Bosnian Muslims) to conflicts between Slavs and Albanians (of ancient Illyrian stock). The second flavor is religion, which is usually tied to race or ethnicity - most Serbs are of the Orthodox Church, most Croats are Roman Catholic, most Kosovar Albanians are Muslim. Religion tends to magnify the ethnic conflicts: since the enemy is not only your enemy here on earth, but for all eternity. If you compromise with him, your very soul is in peril.
Present collectivism is exacerbated by the fact that those living in Yugoslavia have very long memories: 300 years is but a moment in Balkan history. Ethnic and religious rules and standards, preserved in poetry and folklore, begin to indoctrinate each new generation as soon as the children are old enough to listen to bedtime stories. Americans are raised on individualist ideas such as the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Children in Yugoslavia are taught that it is good to sacrifice and if necessary die for their ethnic group, that compromise is evil, that loyalty to one's tribe comes above all.
In reading about Yugoslavia, it's crucial to remember that mindset. The vast majority of people there are committed to fighting over ethnic rivalries. They are not fighting over whether to keep or reject the Communist economic system. They are not fighting to keep or reject totalitarian government. They do not care about wealth, health, or a long happy life. They are just dissatisfied - or rabid with anger - at the thought of being ruled by someone who is not a member of their ethnic group, or at the thought of such a "foreigner" controlling territory that once (even if hundreds of years ago) belonged to their people.
By denying the importance of man's mind, collectivism eliminates the mind as a way of dealing with one's fellow men. Within the ethnic group, men do not operate by principles, but simply obey the rules. "An eye for an eye." "Pray 5 times a day." Keep the race pure." In dealing with outsiders, the collectivist's only recourse is brute force. One cannot, after all, persuade a person to become a Slav or an Albanian, so if he happens to be in the territory claimed by one's own group, the only choices are to kill him or force him out. Trotsky observed pithily, "Stalin seeks to strike, not at the ideas of his opponent, but at his skull." (Quoted in P. Johnson, Modern Times, pb, p. 373). This modus operandi has been accepted for centuries in the Balkans. Ayn Rand described it in more detail: "There is no surer way to infect mankind with hatred - brute, blind, virulent hatred - than by splitting it into ethnic groups or tribes. If a man believes that his own character is determined at birth in some unknown, ineffable way, and that the characteristics of all strangers are determined in the same way - then no communication, no understanding, no persuasion is possible among them, only mutual fear, suspicion and hatred." ("Global Balkanization," The Voice of Reason, p. 128, available from the Ayn Rand Bookstore.)
What is the cure for collectivism? The recognition that man's distinguishing characteristic and means of survival is his mind, with the political corollary of that idea, respect for individual rights. These are not ideas of which those living in Yugoslavia have any experience whatsoever. When Enlightenment philosophers were advocating individual rights, and they were being implemented in Europe and most successfully in the United States, Yugoslavia (in its parts and later as a whole) languished under the rule of Turks, Austro-Hungarian monarchs and Communists, all of whom stressed ethnicity in order to keep their subjects divided and easier to rule.
Will deposing Slobodan Milosevic from power in Yugoslavia stop the killing there? No. The basic problem, collectivist thought in assorted guises, remains. A particularly chilling illustration of that is the fact that Vojislav Kostunica, Milosevic's successor as President of Yugoslavia, is a rabid Serbian nationalist who thinks Milosevic was too mild-mannered in his negotiations over Bosnia-Hercegovina and Kosovo. (See 3.3.)
What then is the proper policy toward the former Yugoslavia?
Western policy to date has been to restrain the many groups demanding independence, on grounds that acknowledging their independence might spur other secessionist movements, and further destabilize the Balkans. Maintaining the territorial status quo has not stopped the killing. The West has withdrawn foreign loans and subsidies, which likewise has not stopped the killing. It has inflicted major damage through air-strikes, but has not stopped the killing. It has sent peacekeeping troops, which have not only failed to stop the killing, but have become targets themselves.
Peace in the Balkans can only come by teaching the warring tribes there why recognition of and respect for individual rights is an absolute necessity. This would take decades, and it is a battle to be waged by teachers with textbooks, not soldiers with machine guns. Unfortunately, so few Westerners correctly identify the problem and its solution, that this long-term cure is unlikely to happen. (For more on which areas of Yugoslavia are most likely to erupt next, see 11.1 and 11.3.)
Sources on collectivism:
Ayn Rand, "Global Balkanization," Voice of Reason (paperback), pp. 115-29; especially p. 118 on ethnicity, p. 124 on religion and p. 127 on ethnicity and hatred.
Ayn Rand, "Racism," Virtue of Selfishness (paperback), pp. 126-34; especially p. 126 for the definition of racism, pp. 127-8 on force and statism, and pp. 128-9 on the antidote.
Ayn Rand, "The Missing Link," The Ayn Rand Letter (reprint), pp. 195-204; especially p. 199 on the non-conceptual mentality and p. 200 on loyalty to group.
All the above works are available from the Ayn Rand Bookstore.
1.2 Format of this paper
This paper opens with sections on the formation of Yugoslavia in 1918, events during World War II, the formation of Communist Yugoslavia and the beginning of its disintegration in the 1990s. The next section is on Serbia, largest republic of Yugoslavia and the source of much of the present mayhem. Then we work through the republics and autonomous provinces of Yugoslavia in the order in which they declared their independence, successfully or not. At the end of the section on Croatia is a discussion of when it is valid for a group of people to secede from an establish country. (See 6.4.)
Note that names such as Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo are convenient for locating these areas on a map, but do not indicate age-old boundaries or areas where exclusive ethnic groups have always resided. Fluctuating borders and mass migrations have been common in the Balkans for a couple thousand years.
2.
2.1 Formation of
In the 5th and 6th centuries AD, amid the chaos and confusion following the fall of the Roman Empire in the West, a mass of people poured into the Balkans from the north. Later they were so often captured and sold to other Europeans that the word "slave" in English, and its equivalent in German, French, Italian, Spanish and Arabic, came from their name: the Slavs. Present-day Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Slovenia, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Macedonia were settled by a sub-group we call the Southern Slavs.
In the 20th c., on the basis of this tribal relationship dating back 1,500 years, a nation was cobbled together from a conglomeration of independent states and previously subject territories with quite different histories and allegiances. In 1918 the National Council of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs proclaimed union and invited Serbia (which controlled Kosovo and part of Macedonia) to join. Soon after, Vojvodina and Montenegro signed on. In recognition of Serbia's struggle on behalf of the Allies in World War I and the numerical superiority of the Serbs (about 40% of the new nation's population), the regent for Serbia's king was asked to become ruler of the new Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, known after 1929 as Kingdom of Yugoslavia.
Lacking unifying political ideas, religion, language, government, or history, the new nation was fragmented from the start. Serbs demanded a strong central government under their control. Croats wanted a weaker, federal system. Discontent festered in Macedonia and Montenegro as well, often leading to violence and murder: during a 1928 meeting of Parliament, a Montenegrin deputy shot three Croatian members dead. The King tried to contain the situation by declaring himself a dictator, but unrest simmered through the 1930s.
2.2 World War II
At the beginning of World War II Germany invaded and dismembered Yugoslavia. Croatia was set up as a puppet state ruled by the fascist Ustashe, who committed atrocities against Jews, gypsies and Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia. Most notably, they slaughtered tens of thousands following forced conversions to Catholicism, "so they could go to heaven." The violence of the Serbian resistance movement, led by the royalist Chetniks, was directed at least as much against the Croats as against Nazis. Leadership of the resistance was eventually taken over by the Communist Partisans. Claiming to represent unity of all Yugoslavs against invaders and traitors, they provided the only alternative to the murderous Chetniks and Ustashe.
By the end of the war the Communist Party had considerable popular support, and succeeded in gaining control of the Yugoslav government when the war ended.
2.3 Communist
The leader of Communist Yugoslavia from 1946 until his death in 1980 was Josip Broz, known by his World-War-II nom de guerre, Tito. He came to power largely by default: in 1937, Stalin had executed the entire leadership of the Yugoslav Communist Party. In 1948 Stalin accused Tito of heretical beliefs, and Yugoslavia was cut off from aid by the U.S.S.R. and its allies. Tito turned to the West for assistance. Viewing Tito as a bulwark between Russia and the Mediterranean, the U.S. began lavishing foreign aid on Yugoslavia.
Communist Yugoslavia, also known as the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia or SFRY, officially had 2 alphabets (Latin and Cyrillic), 3 religions (Roman Catholic, Eastern Orthodox, Muslim), 4 languages (Serbo-Croatian, Slovene, Macedonian, Albanian), 6 republics (Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Serbia, plus Serbia's 2 autonomous provinces, Kosovo and Vojvodina), and 7 major nationalities, including Albanians and Hungarians. Of these Serbs were by far the largest group, at about 40%. "Ethnic diversity" was encouraged, e.g., minorities were guaranteed the use of their native language in local government and elementary schools. Although some ethnic groups demanded independence under Tito, he squelched them with a "return to Leninism" - party purges - and threats of military force. Some credit Tito's taboo on nationalism with keeping Yugoslavia united for 40 years. But while he did forcibly suppress ethnic groups who declared independence, his policy of allowing and encouraging ethnic diversity was essentially an affirmation of tribalism. Tribalism was bound to erupt again once the lid was less securely fastened on the pressure cooker.
After Tito's death in 1980 a collective presidency was established, with one member from each of the 6 republics and the 2 autonomous provinces. This system started to unravel when various ethnic groups once again began demanding autonomy. Slovenia, Croatia and Macedonia declared their independence in 1991, followed by Bosnia in 1992. Serbia and Montenegro, with Serbia's autonomous provinces Vojvodina and Kosovo, then joined to form the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). Kosovo sought independence in 1999, but has for the time being been repressed.
3.
Serbia is slightly larger than Maine, with a population of 9,981,929 (July 2000 estimate). Its capital is Belgrade, on the beautiful blue Danube. Boundaries: Vojvodina on the north, Romania and Bulgaria on the east, Kosovo and Macedonia on the south, Montenegro and Croatia on the west. It has access to the Adriatic Sea only through Montenegro, its partner in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
3.1 History of
Serbia has always been the big fish in the little pond of Yugoslavia: the largest of the component republics in terms of size and population, and the most disruptive during the 1990s. When Slobodan Milosevic wasn’t holding office in Yugoslavia, he held it in Serbia, and had almost as much power.
The Serbian language is Serbo-Croatian, whose spoken form is very similar in Serbia and Croatia. Serbs, however, write it in the Cyrillic alphabet (also used for writing Russian), while the Croats use the Latin alphabet. This is one of many historical reasons that the Serbs have traditionally shown an affinity with the East, especially Russia, even in such matters as the adoption of Communism. In addition, Serbs belong to the Orthodox Church, which is more closely linked to the Russian church than to the Catholic church of the West.
Throughout their history in the Balkan Peninsula, beginning in the 7th c. AD, the Serbs have been at war. First it was with the Bulgars, then the Hungarians, then the Byzantine Empire, to whom the rulers of Serbia owed allegiance from the 10th to 12th centuries.
The zenith of the Serbian Empire occurred under Dushan (1331-1355), who ruled over Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Bulgaria and northern Greece. This medieval kingdom, whose riches rivaled those of Byzantium, is still looked back upon as Serbia's golden age.
It was a short age. In 1389, at the Battle of Kosovo (or the Battle of the Field of Blackbirds), the Serbian Prince Lazar was defeated by the Ottoman Turks. The story of this battle, preserved in folklore and poetry, is a crucial part of Serbian heritage. As it is retold, its moral is that death is preferable to compromise with the enemy. That attitude is still perceptible in Serbian behavior today. (For more on the Battle of Kosovo, see 9.1.)
After the Turkish conquest, migrating Serbs were welcomed in neighboring Hungary as fighters against the Turks. When the Turks defeated the Hungarians in 1526 at Mohacs, however, the Serbs became bondslaves on the land. Despite numerous uprisings, they remained Turkish subjects until the 19th century.
The centuries of Turkish domination form an excruciating but important part of Serbian history. For one thing, Serbia was cut off from the Renaissance and Enlightenment, with all that implies in terms of philosophy, politics, science, technology and the arts. Also, the rule of the Ottoman Turks was characterized by a physical cruelty (impalement was a common Turkish punishment) that is still often imitated by the various ethnic groups in the Balkans.
During the Turkish occupation, the Serbian Orthodox Church was the only institution that maintained authority over all Serbia's former empire. Religion remains an integral part of national identity for Serbs. Hence, although Serbs and Croats come of the same racial stock (South Slavs), Serbs feel no comradeship with Roman Catholic Croats, and a violent abhorrence for Muslims, whom they regard as descendants of the Turks who enslaved the Serbs 600 years ago.
The slow decline of the Ottoman Empire (known in the 19th and early 20th century as "the sick man of Europe") was perceived by Great Britain and Austria-Hungary as a serious threat to European stability. At the 1878 Congress of Berlin, through negotiations with Russia, provisions were made regarding Bosnia-Hercegovina, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece. Serbia was pronounced independent.
In the 1912-13 Balkan Wars the Serbs (in alliance with the Bulgars, Montenegrins and Greeks) declared war on Turkey. Serbia added to its territory a substantial portion of Macedonia, which it had briefly ruled under Dushan.
In 1914, on the 525th anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo, Gavrilo Princip assassinated the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne. Princip was a Bosnian Serb, but Serbian complicity in the assassination was never proven. Nevertheless, Austria-Hungary invaded Serbia, setting off World War I as Russia and France came to the aid of their ally Serbia, Germany to the aid of its ally Austria-Hungary, and so on. The Serbian government and many of its citizens fled west to Albania. After the war ended, Serbia became the largest republic in the new Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes. (See 2.1, 2.2. and 2.3 for Serbia from 1918 to ca. 1990.)
3.2 Slobodan Milosevic
At a time when Communism was collapsing elsewhere in Eastern Europe, Slobodan Milosevic, a Communist-trained bureaucrat, seized power in Yugoslavia and held it for 13 years. Most of the hundreds of thousands of deaths and atrocities that have recently occurred in Yugoslavia can be rung up to the account of the "Butcher of the Balkans," who often started wars just to distract those under his rule from his increasing unpopularity. Judging from his actions and his few public speeches, Milosevic himself has no ideology at all. He lusts after political power and pragmatically uses any means at hand to gain and keep it.
By 1986, six years after Tito's death, Milosevic seems to have realized that he could not replace Tito as master of all Yugoslavia. He decided instead to rule the Serbs. The base of his power is usually referred to as "nationalism," but it was, more precisely, racism: an assertion of the innate superiority of the Serbian people and religion. Milosevic promoted the idea (initially spouted by a few Serb intellectuals) that Serbs in Communist Yugoslavia were oppressed - especially those in Kosovo. (See 9.1-9.3.) He advocated the 19th-century notion of a "Greater Serbia," where all Serbs could live together. He arranged for the bones of Prince Lazar, the Serbian leader at the Battle of Kosovo, to be sent on tour throughout Serbia. Nationalist sentiments, repressed under Tito, started to surge.
In 1987 Milosevic was sent to the autonomous province of Kosovo, just south of the Serbian republic, to mediate a minor dispute between Serbs and ethnic Albanians. Breaking Tito's taboo on nationalism, he became a hero to the Serbs when he asserted, "No one will ever dare beat you again!" By late 1987, he was President of Serbia.
The 1990 election was the only one at which Milosevic was elected President of Yugoslavia by a free popular vote. Even there he had meddled, assigning his agents to run many opposition parties in order to weaken the genuine opposition.
Milosevic's popularity didn't last long. When protesters demanded freedom of the press and an independent judiciary in 1991, Milosevic dispatched riot police with water guns to disperse them. Opposition leaders were subject to arrest and torture. A few years later, Milosevic even loosed the murderous paramilitary gangs that had been operating in Bosnia against protesting Serbs in Serbia. (The paramilitary units were under Milosevic's direct command and were usually given untraceable verbal orders, but a swaggering few boasted of who their boss was.)
By 1991, Communist Yugoslavia was disintegrating. When Slovenia seceded from Communist Yugoslavia in June 1991, Milosevic let it go with only a token, 10-day war. (See 5.1.) When Croatia seceded in the same year, however, he encouraged Serbs living in Croatia to rebel against Croatian rule, supplying weapons and troops in the vicious war that followed. (See 6.2.) The following year, with the Croatian war temporarily settled, Milosevic began encouraging and supporting Bosnian Serbs who had declared themselves independent from predominantly Muslim Bosnia, after Bosnia declared its own independence. (See 8.2.)
On April 11, 1992, Serbia, with its two provinces (Vojvodina and Kosovo) and tiny Montenegro, declared its own independence of the former Yugoslavia, under the name Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). Serbia and Montenegro each has its own president and parliament, and there is a Yugoslav president and parliament as well. Due to Serbia's size, the Serbian parliament has considerable influence.
The December 1992 elections were the first serious challenge to Milosevic's power. Since the economy was by this time in a shambles and he had involved the nation in two brutal wars, he had no popular support. He became President of Serbia by prohibiting opposition access to the media, purging the voter rolls of his opponents, and stuffing ballot boxes. In 1996 he applied the same techniques in the elections for President of Yugoslavia, but in the face of riots finally conceded defeat. Soon thereafter the opposing coalition fell apart, and Milosevic managed to have himself elected president by the parliament while the opposition was boycotting it.
Serbia was involved in the Bosnian war until the Dayton agreement in 1995. (See 8.2.) Then there was a short period of relative quiet until Kosovo began to demand independence in 1998 (See 9.2.) Such were the atrocities committed as the Serbs began ethnic cleansing of Kosovo that in 1999, the United Nations war crimes tribunal issued a warrant for Milosevic's arrest, for actions he incited in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo. Aside from making him the first sitting head of state to be accused of war crimes, this meant Milosevic had an even larger stake in remaining in power in Serbia: he could not now retire comfortably to a nice villa on the Riviera.
3.3 Current status of
Due to NATO bombings and western economic sanctions, much of Serbia's industry and infrastructure has been destroyed, and its trade partners lost. Enormous infusions of outside investment would be required to rebuild. Meanwhile, millions of workers (some 30% of the work force) are unemployed. GDP dropped 20% in 1999, inflation hovers at an estimated 42%, and per capita GDP is a low $1,800. Military expenditures are 6.5% of total GDP; compare the U.S. at 3.2% and Israel at 9.4%. (Most nations spend 1-2%.)
In the September 2000 elections, Milosevic ran for President of Yugoslavia against Vojislav Kostunica, a 56-year-old law professor described in the U.S. media as a "rabid Serb nationalist"- his views on Kosovo and Bosnia were even more extreme than those once professed by Milosevic. Kostunica is also very anti-American, and refused to take any campaign money from the Clinton administration. (The Administration contributed about $25 million to parties running against Milosevic.) He has, however, vowed to bring Yugoslavia back to the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the International Monetary Fund.
On election day in September 2000, Milosevic's minions engaged in business as usual: a threatening police presence at the polls, voters were forced to cast their ballots publicly, names of opposition voters removed from the rolls, and some polling places left opened. By the official tally (i.e., as counted by Milosevic's party), Kostunica received 48.22% of the votes, Milosevic only 40.3%, and a run-off election was set for October 8. According to exit polls taken by Kostunica's supporters, however, Kostunica won with at least 54% - the required absolute majority. After some delay and massive protests in Belgrade and other cities, Milosevic finally conceded defeat, but vowed to remain in Yugoslavia and fight for his political party.
Milosevic may be gone for good, since the army, police and media no longer seem to be under his thumb. There are, however, some less pleasant possibilities. He might bide his time until the 18-group coalition that sponsored Kostunica falls apart (their only common ground was opposition to Milosevic), and then make a grab for power as he did in 1996. He might use his party's present majority in the Serbian parliament to regain power. He might run for president of Serbia (elections possibly in December 2000); if his supporters retained control of the Serbian parliament in those elections, he would still be a force to be reckoned with.
Even if Milosevic is out of power, we are still faced with the question of whether Kostunica will be any better. If he gains control of the army and police, he may well decide that his majority vote authorizes him to begin yet another war in Bosnia or Kosovo.
4. VOJVODINA Back to Table of Contents
Vojvodina, one of two provinces subject to Serbian rule, is approximately the size of Massachusetts, with a population of about 2 million and its capital at Novi Sad. Boundaries: Hungary on the north, Romania on the east, Serbia on the south, Croatia on the west.
4.1 History of Vojvodina
Settled in the 6th century by the Slavs and in the 10th by the Hungarians, Vojvodina was under Turkish rule for a relatively short time (16th-17th c.). By the late 17th c. the Hapsburgs had driven the Turks out, and in the 18th c. they encouraged many Hungarians and Germans to migrate there. Vojvodina remained under Hungarian rule until 1918. In the Communist era Vojvodina was the granary of Yugoslavia, and was heavily industrialized.
1988 saw the Milosevic-sponsored "Yogurt
Revolution," when Serbs threw containers of yogurt at the president and
party leadership of Vojvodina, to humiliate them and drive them out. They
were replaced with Serbs to ensure that Vojvodina would not declare
independence. Vojvodina then became the first site of the now notorious
"ethnic cleansing," later used in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo. It
involved driving as many non-Serbs as possible from their homes, burning
their empty houses to prevent their return, and murdering those who would not
or could not leave. By 1989 the population of Vojvodina was 55% Serbs, 24%
Hungarians and 8% Croatians. Statistics on deaths and refugees in Vojvodina
are not readily available, since it remains officially a part of Serbia.
4.2 Current status of Vojvodina
There seem to be no published statistics available on Vojvodina's economy. No strong independence movements appear to be afoot there.
5.
Slovenia is slightly smaller than New Jersey, with its capital at Ljubljana and a population of 1,927,593. Boundaries: Austria on the north, Hungary on the east, Croatia on the east and south, Italy on the west. It has a few miles of coastline on the Adriatic Sea, just east of Italy.
5.1 History of
Slovenia, the republic that seceded from Communist Yugoslavia with the least fuss, has (not by coincidence) the calmest, least interesting history. The Slovenes migrated to the area in the 6th century. Although they were a branch of the Southern Slavs, they had their own language, related to but distinct from Serbo-Croatian. By 743 they were part of the Frankish kingdom that became the Carolingian Empire under Charlemagne. In the 9th c., when the Empire was partitioned, Slovenia became part of the German kingdom. Its sense of national identity was mostly preserved by its Roman Catholic priests.
Toward the end of the 13th c. the Hungarians gradually took over the area and held it for some 700 years. In 1918, on a wave of nationalist enthusiasm, the Slovenes voted to join the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croatians and Slovenes, later known as Yugoslavia.
In the Communist era Slovenia's fertile land and tourist appeal gave it the highest standard of living of any of the Yugoslav republics. Its population ca. 1990 was about 95% Slovene. Dissatisfied with the lessening of its autonomy after Tito's death and with Communist economic policies, Slovenia became in 1991 the first republic to secede from Communist Yugoslavia. The "Ten Day War" that followed saw only about 50 casualties. Milosevic had no objection to allowing the secession of a Roman Catholic republic with a Serb population of a mere 2%.
5.2 Current status of
Slovenia is in better shape than any of the other former Yugoslav republics. Damage from the 1991 war for independence was negligible. It has a GDP per capita of $10,900 (contrast Serbia's $1,800), with a GDP real growth rate of 3.5%, and inflation of 6.3% (vs. Serbia's 42%). Unemployment is a relatively low 7.1%, and military expenditures are only 1.6% of the GDP (vs. Serbia's 6.5%). No minorities are demanding independence, and its government seems stable and relatively benign.
6.
Croatia, slightly smaller than West Virginia, has its capital at Zagreb. Its population is 4,282,216, about half that of Serbia. Boundaries: Slovenia and Hungary on the north, Vojvodina, Bosnia and Montenegro on the east; long stretch of the Adriatic Sea on the south and west.
6.1 History of
Although the Serbs and Croats joined Yugoslavia in 1918 on the basis of their common race (Southern Slavs), they have little in common except their shared Serbo-Croatian language. While Serbs have always looked to the East, Croats have looked to the West. When the Roman Empire split in the 4th c., the territory that is now Croatia was assigned to the Western Empire (which became Catholic), the territory that is now Serbia to the East (which became Orthodox). The Slavs who migrated to Croatia in the 6th c. were soon converted to Catholicism, and still regard the Eastern Orthodox Serbs as apostates from the One True Church. Between Croats and Serbs, it is religion rather than race that forms the basis for collectivist hatred.
Freeing itself of Byzantine rule in the late 9th c., Croatia reached its greatest territorial extent under Petar Kresimir (1058-74), when it ruled what is now Croatia and Bosnia-Hercegovina. By the 1090s, however, most of Croatia was under Hungarian (later Austrian) control, and remained so for 8 centuries, although its people resisted efforts to have Serbo-Croatian replaced by Hungarian as the official language. Because of the long connection with Hungary, the Croats think of themselves as much more western and civilized than the Serbs.
In the late 17th c. the Austrian Hapsburgs established a long, narrow military exclusion zone, the Krajina, to serve as a buffer between Austrian Croatia and the Turks. The Hapsburgs encouraged Serbs to move to the Krajina if they wished to fight the Turks. Tens of thousands of Serbs moved to the Krajina, including about 30,000 from Kosovo alone. This led to a substantial, very concentrated population of Serbs in the section of Croatia just west of Bosnia-Hercegovina. These are generally referred to as Croatian Serbs, or ethnic Serbs living in Croatia.
Croatia did not officially break with Austria-Hungary until 1918, when it joined the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes. (See 2.1.) During World War II, the Fascist Ustashe, governing a nominally independent Croatia, murdered vast numbers of Jews, gypsies and Serbs: estimates vary from 60,000 to 700,000. (See 2.2.) No one figure brings out the differences between Croats and Serbs as much as Cardinal Alojzije Stepinac (d. 1962). As leader of the Roman Catholics in Croatia during World War II, Stepinac authorized and presided over the forced conversions of thousands of Orthodox Serbs and Jews just before they were slaughtered, to ensure that they went to heaven. (See 2.2.) To Croats, Stepinac is a holy man: Pope John Paul II recently beatified him, the first step toward declaring him a saint. To Serbs, Stepinac is a Nazi war criminal.
Tito was a Croat, and during his leadership of Communist Yugoslavia made a point of downplaying the numerical superiority of the Serbs. (See 2.3.)
6.2 Wars between Croatia and Serbia in 1991-92 and 1995
In June 1991 Croatia declared its independence from Communist Yugoslavia. Immediately after, Serbs in the Krajina (who had been in Croatia for 400 years, but still remained resolutely Serbian) declared their independence from Croatia, refusing to be ruled by anyone but Serbs. The war between Serbia and Croatia for control of the Krajina was brief but brutal. By the U.N. cease-fire in January 1992, some 350,000 Krajina Serbs were placed under Croat rule. Given the hatred of Croats and Serbs for each other, it was a very volatile situation.
Three years later, U.S.-trained Croatian troops dashed past U.N. peacekeepers to seize the Serb-held territory of Western Slavonia (north of Bosnia), burning and massacring as they went. Then the Croats turned to the Krajina, which the Serb army (at Milosevic's orders) promptly evacuated, followed by about 170,000 Serb refugees. The few Serbs who remained were slaughtered by the Croats. When asked what should be done with the refugees, Milosevic, whose agents had organized the Krajina revolt in 1991, said, "Send them to Kosovo. We need more Serbs in Kosovo, don't we?" (See 9.1-9.2.)
6.3 Current status of
Croatia was the second most prosperous and industrialized republic in Communist Yugoslavia, following Slovenia. During the war with Serbia much of its industry, housing and transportation were destroyed, and considerable numbers of refugees remain. Many enterprises have not yet been privatized. The GDP real growth rate was 0% in 1999, with a per capita GDP of $5,100: half as good as Slovenia, but considerably better than Serbia's $1,800. Inflation is a low 4.4%, unemployment 20%. About 5% of the GDP goes toward military expenditures, substantial but not as much as Serbia spends. Croatia has few unsettled disputes, except one with Serbia over Eastern Slavonia (a small area just west of Slovenia). On the other hand, given the festering hatred between Croats and Serbs, any minor hassle could turn into a war.
6.4 Right to secede vs. territorial integrity of existing states
Should the Krajina Serbs have the right to secede from Croatia, or the Bosnian Serbs from Bosnia? More broadly, does an ethnic group that is isolated among a different ethnic group have a right to form its own state, or does the territorial integrity of the existing state take precedence? Let's consider what justifies secession.
Notwithstanding the Western preference for keeping the Balkans from becoming even further Balkanized, there are circumstances when it is acceptable for a group of people to secede from an established state. Those circumstances derive from the proper nature of government. If individual rights are being systematically violated by the government, the citizens' first obligation is to attempt to halt the violations by legal means: legislation or the judicial process. If such means are nonfunctional or nonexistent, they have the option of emigrating to a country that does respect individual rights. If this is not feasible, it would then be reasonable for them to secede in order to form a separate country with laws that do respect individual rights - their own as well as those of others. This implies, however, that a substantial number of people is involved and that they live in (or can move to) a delimited area. If the group is large enough and support for individual rights is widespread enough, then and only then would it make sense to overthrow the existing government and establish a new one that would respect rights.
It is not acceptable to secede in order to do unto others in your territory what they have been doing unto you in theirs. It is not valid for an ethnic group to secede in order to establish an ethnic state; racism or collectivism is not a proper basis for any political entity. Hence it is invalid not only to form independent states for Bosnian Serbs, Kosovar Albanians, etc., but also to form states such as Yugoslavia, which was based on racial and tribal relationships 1,500 years old.
Only Slovenia appears to be an exception to the usual Balkan subdivision by ethnic groups. Slovenia actually seems to have objected to Communist economic policies and totalitarian rule. Its current economic statistics (high per capita income, increasing production) suggest that it did in fact secede because Yugoslavia was Communist, and Slovenia's people wanted to be capitalist (or at least mixed) economy. Since I have yet to see a detailed study on the past 10 years in Slovenia, however, this is unconfirmed.
Sources: Ayn Rand, "Global Balkanization," Voice of Reason, especially p. 127 (definition of Balkanization) and pp. 128-9 (right to secede): available from the Ayn Rand Bookstore.
7. MACEDONIA (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)
Macedonia is slightly larger than Vermont. Its capital, Skopje (birthplace of Mother Teresa), has a larger Albanian population than any other city in the world, including Tirana, the capital of neighboring Albania. Of the population of 2,041,467 (July 2000 estimate), 66.6% are Macedonians, 22.7% Albanians, 4% Turkish, and 2.1% Serbs. Boundaries: Kosovo and Serbia on the north, Bulgaria on the east, Greece on the south, Albania on the west.
7.1 History of
Who are the Macedonians? Depends who you ask. The Bulgarians, based on the language used in the area (Macedonian), assert that Macedonians are ethnic Bulgarians. A militant Serb minority insists the area belongs to Serbia, since Serbia controlled it in the 13th century. The substantial Albanian population wants either independence or union with Albania into a "Greater Albania." Because Alexander the Great was born in Macedonia, the Greeks consider it Greek, and insist on calling the new nation to their north "FYROM," for Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
Why does it matter who rules Macedonia? It is a strategic crossroads between Europe and Asia. Through it the Persians marched to Greece in the 5th c. BC. In the 4th c. BC, Alexander the Great set out from it to conquer mainland Greece and much of the Near East. During the Middle Ages, Byzantines and Turks came through it to conquer the Balkan Peninsula and attack Europe.
Macedonia was a backwater until the time of Alexander the Great's father. After Alexander died it was ruled by petty kings, then conquered by the Romans in the 1st c. BC. In the 4th c. AD it became part of the Eastern Roman Empire - hence its population is predominantly Orthodox. After Rome fell, Slavs and then Bulgars migrated to the area, and by the 9th c. nearly all of Macedonia was incorporated into the First Bulgarian Empire. After a short stint under the Byzantines (beginning 1008), it was added to the Serbian Empire by Dushan in 1346. But by 1371 the Turks had conquered most of the area; many Serbs fled, and Macedonia's fertile plains began to fill with Turks immigrating from the east and Albanians from the west.
The volatile situation referred to in the 19th and early 20th c. as the "Macedonian Question" arose when the Turkish empire began disintegrating in the late 19th century. Bulgaria gained control of most of Macedonia by 1900. A substantial number of Turks who had fled Bulgaria proper remained, as did some Muslims who fled Bosnia when the Austro-Hungarians annexed it in 1878. (See 8.1.) With the blessing of the Austro-Hungarians, the Serbs poured men into Macedonia to counter the presence of the Turks and Bulgars.
The campaign to liberate Macedonia, which was backed by most non-Muslim Macedonians, was run by IMRO, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization, formed in 1893 by Gotse Delchev and others. Funded by bank robberies and kidnapping for ransom, IMRO placed bombs at theaters, cafes and railroad stations, and held secret tribunals and executions. IMRO was, in short, the first modern terrorist group.
After the 1912-13 Balkan Wars, Macedonia was divided between the Greeks and the Serbs. In a mass emigration typical of the Balkan region, about 100,000 Turks soon fled to Turkey, and in the 1920s another 300,000 left.
During World War II Macedonia was partitioned among the Axis powers. Much of it went to Bulgaria, which sided with the Axis with precisely that in mind. Bits went to Albania and Italy. Salonika, Macedonia's major city, was taken over by the Germans, who gassed 40,000 or 50,000 Jews there.
In September 1991 Macedonia declared its independence from Yugoslavia. Milosevic and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis considered invading it and splitting it between Greece and Yugoslavia, but decided that the European Union and NATO would probably not tolerate such behavior. In 1994 the ethnic Albanians in Macedonia (over 20% of the population, mostly in the western part of the country) declared their own independence, but were crushed. Most are now KLA supporters (see 9.2), which is part of the reason Macedonia was not eager to accept ethnic Albanian refugees from Kosovo in 1999.
7.2 Current status of
Macedonia was the poorest republic in Communist Yugoslavia, and with the break-up of Yugoslavia lost its protected markets, trading partners and federal subsidies. During the Kosovo conflict (see 9.2) it suffered severe economic disruptions as a flood of ethnic Albanian refugees entered the country. Macedonia's real growth rate in GDP is 2.5%, on a very low base; its per-capita GDP is $3,800, which poor, but better than either Serbia or Bosnia. Unemployment is 35%. Military expenditures are 2.5% of GDP.
The biggest problem for Macedonia is that the Serbs and Albanians living there despise each other and want independence for their own groups, or union with Serbia or Albania. As with the other ethnic disagreements in Yugoslavia, this one is bound to erupt into violence unless the racist / collectivist premises behind it are dropped.
8. BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA Back to Table of Contents
Bosnia is slightly smaller than West Virginia, with its capital at Sarajevo. Its population is about 3,835,777. Boundaries: Croatia on the west and north, Serbia and Montenegro on the east and south, and a 12-mile coastline on the Adriatic Sea.
NOTE: "Bosnia" is used below (except in the very earliest part of the History section) to refer to Bosnia-Hercegovina. "Bosniak" is a relatively recent term for Bosnian Muslims, but I have retained the term "Bosnian Muslim," which is more immediately comprehensible.
8.1 History of Bosnia-Hercegovina
Bosnia, home of Catholics and Bogomils, Orthodox and Muslims, Serbs, Croats, Turks and the man who set off World War II, has one of the most complicated histories in the Balkans, and (not coincidentally) one of the bloodiest.
Originally Bosnia-Hercegovina was two separate territories: Bosnia, the area around the Bosna river, and Hercegovina, a small territory ruled by a "herceg" (similar to a duke). When our knowledge of the area begins, it was inhabited by Illyrian tribes. Romans conquered it in first century AD, and when the Empire was divided in 395, Bosnia (like Croatia) stayed with the Western Empire and eventually became Catholic. As in Serbia and Croatia, most of Bosnia's population descends from the Southern Slavs who migrated there in the 6th century.
Bosnia first became a separate political entity in the 10th century. Under Kulin (ca. 1180-1204?) the Bosnians embraced the Bogomil heresy, which declared that the visible, material world was a creation of the devil and that Christ could therefore never have been incarnated. Hence the Bogomils rejected baptism and the Eucharist, earning the virulent enmity of the Catholic Church. Although the king of Bosnia eventually renounced this heresy, it persisted among the nobility. In the 13th c. the pope described the country as "overgrown with thorns and nettle and a breed of vipers."
The Turks invading Bosnia in 1386 were repelled by Tvrtko (d. 1391), who went on to rule an empire that included modern Bosnia and much of Croatia. In the 15th c., however, the area became a province of the Ottoman Empire. Since the Turks classified their subjects by religion rather than nationality, and non-Muslims had no citizenship (hence no rights), many Bosnians converted to the Muslim faith for practical rather than theological reasons. The nobility, many of whom were still Bogomils, also converted to the Muslim faith. Descendants of these early converts form today's substantial Muslim population in Bosnia.
In the 16th-17th c. Bosnia, by now thoroughly assimilated into the Ottoman Empire, was on the front line of the war between the Empire and the Christian West. (The Krajina military district of Croatia was on the Bosnian border; see 6.1.) Bosnia remained under Turkish control almost continuously until the late 19th c., despite frequent rebellions by Christians and Muslims.
In 1877, by secret convention, Russia recognized Austria-Hungary's right to occupy Bosnia in return for Austro-Hungarian neutrality in Russia's planned war with Turkey; by 1878, Bosnia was part of Austria-Hungary. To make the area easier to control and to keep the Serbs from taking it over, the new rulers encouraged Bosnian nationalism, repressed Serbian national feeling, and sowed dissent between Serbs and Croats. By the early 20th c. many Muslims had fled from Bosnia to Turkey. Those who remained formed a tight community that still adhered to Islamic law.
Dissatisfaction with Austro-Hungarian rule was widespread by 1914, when the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary and his wife visited Sarajevo and were assassinated by a Bosnian Serb (Gavrilo Princip) - the shot that triggered World War I. (See 3.1.)
In 1918, Bosnia formally became a part of the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes. Split between Germany and Italy during the Second World War, it was the site of atrocities by the Croatian Ustashe and the Serb Chetniks. (See 2.2.) The reunited Bosnia-Hercegovina became one of the republics making up Communist Yugoslavia in 1946.
By 1991, Bosnia was the most ethnically diverse of the Yugoslav republics, with Muslims at 44%, Serbs at 31% and Croats 17%, yet it might have remained peaceful had not Milosevic deliberately begun inciting nationalism in the Serbs. (See 3.2.)
7.2 War between Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia, 1992-95
Bosnia declared its independence of Communist Yugoslavia in March 1992. Spurred on by Milosevic's nationalist rhetoric, Bosnian Serbs refused to be ruled by Muslims, and beginning in 1992 besieged the Muslim part of Sarajevo for 1,395 days, the longest siege in modern history. Much of the city was destroyed and remains in ruins. The stadium for the 1984 Olympics became a mass graveyard.
Elsewhere in Serb-controlled Bosnia, Milosevic sent in paramilitary troops (see 3. 2) who began ethnic cleansing of the area. At one Muslim village after another, they would threaten or murder leading citizens, watch as the rest of the population fled in panic, and then burn the village and kill whoever was left. Some 700,000 refugees were created, more than had been seen in Europe since World War II.
Bosnian Croats began as allies of the Muslims against the Serbs, whom both groups hate. Eventually, however, Bosnian Croats decided to try to add Croatian-dominated Bosnian territory to a "Greater Croatia." After a 9-month siege of Muslims in Mostar, a cease-fire between Muslims and Bosnian Croats was signed in late February 1994, and Bosnian Muslims and Croats formed an independent country.
In August 1994, for propaganda reasons (he was steadily losing support in Serbia because of Serbia's involvement in the Bosnian war), Milosevic began to blame the Bosnian Serb leadership for the war, and successfully sold himself to western leaders as a peacemaker. After the July 1995 massacre at Srebrenica of over 7,000 Muslims who had surrendered to the Serbs (it was the worst massacre since World War II), the West decided to use NATO air-strikes against Bosnian Serbs. These strikes destroyed much of Bosnia's military potential and infrastructure.
Bosnian Serbs were finally pressured into allowing Milosevic to negotiate on their behalf. In November 1995, in Dayton Ohio, an agreement was worked out whereby Bosnia would remain a single state, but with separately governed enclaves for Muslims and Croats (51%) and Serbs (49%). At the last minute, Milosevic gave the Muslims complete control of Sarajevo, the one sophisticated urban center where Croats, Serbs and Muslims had earlier lived in reasonable harmony. Thirty thousand peacekeeping troops (including 5,000 or 6,000 Americans) were to be sent to Bosnia for 12 months, until the country stabilized.
Five years later, they are still there. The Bosnian media, controlled by rival ethnic groups, still routinely broadcasts inflammatory stories, such as accounts of Muslims feeding kidnapped Serbian children to the lions at the zoo. Peace is far, far away from Bosnia.
8.3 Current status
Under Communist Yugoslavia, Bosnia was the second poorest republic, after Macedonia. Such has been the disruption that few recent economic statistics are available. We know that much of the infrastructure has been destroyed, with production plummeting 80% from 1990 to 1995. The GDP growth rate of 5% (July 2000 estimate) is on a very low base, and production remains far below 1990 levels. Per-capita GDP is $1,770, even lower than Serbia's; unemployment is 35-40%.
Bosnia is like Siamese twins who hate each others' guts: the Muslim-Croat and Serb enclaves created by the Dayton Agreement function separately in internal affairs, but supposedly cooperate in foreign affairs. Eventually they will probably become completely separate, possibly with one part joining Croatia, the other Serbia. The only question is whether they will do so with or without bloodshed. Given the history of the region, the former is unfortunately much more likely.
9. KOSOVO Back to Table of Contents
Kosovo, about half the size of Maryland, has its administrative center at Pristina. Its population ca. 1999 (before the war) was 2.1 million. Boundaries: Serbia on the north and east, Macedonia on the south, Albania and Montenegro on the west.
9.1 History of Kosovo
June 27, 1389: Prince Lazar, leader of the Serbs, is about to fight the invading Turks. A messenger from God appears to ask Lazar if he'd prefer an earthly or a heavenly kingdom. If he chooses the former, he will win the battle or make a deal with the Turks; if he chooses the latter, he will die. Lazar chooses the heavenly kingdom. The next day, he and thousands of his followers perish on the battlefield, where the Turks leave their bodies as food for carrion birds.
For Americans, it's inconceivable to act based on an event that took place 600 years ago. For Serbs, it's habit. The Battle of Kosovo, also known as the Field of Blackbirds, is an essential element in understanding the Serbian psyche. Stories about it, passed through long oral and written tradition, emphasize that no compromise is permissible when the nation's honor is at stake.
Because of their strong feelings about this battle, the Serbs regard Kosovo as the heart of Serbia, and some of the worst massacres and atrocities in Yugoslavia recently took place there as Serbs tried to prevent a population now 90% ethnic Albanians from seceding from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. (If you can imagine signing Philadelphia over to Cubans, you will perhaps get a mild sense of how violently opposed the Serbs are to handing Kosovo over to ethnic Albanians.) The Kosovo Albanians are descended from the Illyrians who came to the Balkans a thousand years before the Slavs, occupying the present Albania, Kosovo and western Macedonia. They speak a langauge unrelated to any other known language. Serbs regard them first and foremost as descendants of the hated Turks.
In the 1912-13 Balkan Wars the Serbs grabbed Kosovo from Albania, burning villages and massacring thousands of ethnic Albanians. During World War I the Serbs were driven out by the Austro-Hungarians and the Germans, and upon their return, more slaughter ensued. Kosovo was assigned to the Serbs at the Paris Peace Conference ending the war. By 1921, the Serbian government (now part of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes) was encouraging Serbs to move to Kosovo, so that by World War II the percentage of ethnic Albanians had dropped from 64 to 50%. In World War II the Kosovar Albanians, allied with the Nazis, massacred thousands of Serbs and drove some 10,000 families to Serbia.
Hoping to reconcile the ethnic Albanians and the Serbs, Tito granted political autonomy within the Republic of Serbia to the ethnic Albanians, who were by then a majority in Kosovo (and, with a high birth rate, were becoming even more numerous). The ethnic Albanians had the right to their own schools, language, culture, university and parliament. Serbs (in both Serbia and Kosovo) were incensed. Why, they said, should foreigners who had lived in Kosovo a mere 300 years control the province? The myths surrounding the Battle of Kosovo explicitly rejected compromise, and embraced death and sacrifice. So did the modern Serbs.
In 1981, the year after Tito's death, the Kosovo Albanians demanded independence from Serbia and republic status within Yugoslavia. Although their demands were forcibly crushed, there was little interethnic violence from then until 1987. In that year, Slobodan Milosevic, in a speech on the anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo, told a crowd of Serbs, "No one will ever dare beat you again!" From that point on, nationalism, or more precisely a form of crude racism, became the focal point of those living in Communist Yugoslavia, and particularly of the Serbs, whom Milosevic was determined to consolidate and control. (See 3.2.)
9.2 War between Kosovo and Serbia, 1998-1999
The movement for the independence of Kosovo began in earnest after the Dayton Agreement of November 1995, which established a new government for Bosnia-Hercegovina but did not mention Kosovo. In 1997 the Kosovo Liberation Army formed, and by 1998 it controlled about 40% of Kosovo. Despite its lack of a strong central organization, and the fact that it committed atrocities just as appalling as those of the Serb-controlled police, the KLA quickly became the dominant political voice in Kosovo. Serbs and ethnic Albanians began ethnic cleansing of the territories each controlled. Some 800,000 Albanians were driven out of Kosovo, another 400,000 to 600,000 were driven to the mountains, and about 10,000 were killed. Ethnic Albanian refugees were not welcome across the border in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, independent since 1992: Macedonia had its own large population of ethnic Albanians, and non-Albanians feared that allowing more in would upset the balance of power there.
By March 1999 international indignation over Kosovo was so intense that NATO began 78 days of air-strikes against Serbia. Milosevic responded with more ethnic cleansing, but in June finally signed a cease-fire. Serbia agreed to withdraw all military and police forces from Kosovo (except for a few thousand guarding Serbia's most sacred historical sites), and substantial autonomy was restored. In addition, 48,000 peacekeepers (including 5,500 Americans) were sent by NATO, under U.N. control, at a cost of some $50 billion for the first year. The Russians (long-time allies of the Serbs) insisted on being part of the peacekeeping force, but refused to operate under NATO's aegis; they moved into Pristina just before NATO forces could take up position there.
9.3 Current status
Today, 15 months after the cease-fire, the peacekeepers are still there. War destroyed Kosovo's infrastructure, including the ability to provide shelter, food, water, electricity and employment. The situation is still extremely volatile, since the terms of the cease-fire satisfied neither the KLA's desire for independence, nor the Serbs' desire for complete control of Kosovo. Kosovars no longer serve in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia's army or pay Yugoslav taxes. It seems likely that within the next few years Kosovo will become an independent state, unless it is forcibly repressed by the Serbs (perhaps with Russian assistance).
10.
Montenegro was the tiniest republic in Communist Yugoslavia, slightly smaller than Connecticut, with its capital at Podgorica. Of its population of 680,158 (July 2000 estimate), 68% are Montenegrins, who are closely related to Serbs, speak Serbo-Croatian, use the Cyrillic alphabet and belong to the Serbian Orthodox Church. Boundaries: Serbia and Kosovo on the north and east, Albania on the south, Croatia on the north and west; short stretch of coast along the Adriatic Sea to the southwest. It provides Serbia, its fellow republic in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, with its only outlet to the sea.
10.1 History of
"I know your ancestors," runs a Montenegrin insult. "They died in their beds." Montenegro is the only part of the Balkans that never fell under Turkish rule; the Montenegrins have fought and are still fighting all comers. They are known as the tallest and toughest of the Balkan peoples, with an immense pride in their family, ancestors and clans, and a mountainous territory singularly inhospitable to invaders.
Montenegro was conquered by the Serbs in the Middle Ages. After the Serb defeat at the Battle of Kosovo, many Serbs retreated to the mountains of Montenegro and continued to fight the Turks. From the 15th to 19th c., they did it under the rule of a prince-bishop (vladike) living in the remote village of Cetinje. The most famous Montenegrin figure from this time was the monk Stephen the Small, who appeared in 1767 claiming to be the Russian Emperor Peter III, Catherine II's murdered spouse. Two years later a Russian envoy dispatched to denounce him was so charmed that he left Stephen in power and authorized him to wear the uniform of a Russian staff officer. Stephen was blinded while directing road construction, but continued to rule until his death at the hands of his Greek servant (possibly in the pay of the Turks).
In 1878 the Great Powers recognized Montenegro's independence and doubled its area. Fearing that Montenegro and Serbia might unite and disrupt the balance of power in the Balkans, the Great Powers also prohibited construction of communications between the two countries and left a Turkish buffer zone between them. This buffer zone, known as the Sandzak (around Novi Pazar) is now 45% Muslim, and has all the explosive potential of the Krajina in Croatia. (See 6.1.)
Montenegro voted to join the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes in 1918, but not all its citizens were pleased with the union. It was a Montenegrin member of parliament who shot 3 Croatian MPs in the Yugoslav Parliament in 1928.
During World War II, Montenegro was the scene of constant battles by Italians and Germans against Chetniks and Communist Partisans. The Italians finally withdrew and let the Chetniks and Communists fight each other, as they had been doing all along. In Communist Yugoslavia, Montenegro was granted the status of a republic partly in recognition of the Montenegrins' valiant fighting with Tito's partisans, and partly to diminish Serbian dominance in Yugoslavia. Tito sought the Montenegrins' favor by building Podgorica (originally named Titograd), a new and more accessible capital, in 1946.
Milosevic engineered a coup in Montenegro in 1989, by which young Communists who supported Milosevic came to power. Even so, Montenegrin support for Serbia's wars was unenthusiastic, and Serbia several times cut food and power supplies in retribution. The Liberal Alliance of Montenegro, which favors independence, a capitalist economy, and more contacts with the West, recommended that its members vote for Milo Djukanovic in 1997, and he was duly elected. Djukanovic is considered pro-western and anti-Milosevic.
10.2 Current status of
Separate economic statistics do not seem to be available for Montenegro. Interestingly, however, its population growth is much higher (12.22%, vs. Serbia's .739%), and life expectancy is 3 years longer. It is difficult to account for this, except for the obvious fact that Serbs have been at war so constantly over the past ten years that the mortality rate is beginning to affect long-term statistics.
During the September 2000 elections for president of Yugoslavia, Montenegro's President Djukanovic stated that if Milosevic won, Montenegro would hold an independence referendum. The Montenegrins boycotted the September elections, with only a 24% turnout (vs. 76% in Serbia). For some time, young men in Montenegro have been training to fight the Serbs, and the Montenegrins have established the German Deutschemark as legal tender along with the Yugoslav dinar. These sound like preparations for independence. It is unlikely that Serbia, whether under Milosevic or Kostunica, will allow feisty little Montenegro to secede without a fight, since it is one of the only two republics left in the former Yugoslavia, has a population closely related to the Serbs, and provides Serbia's only access to the sea.
11. PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE MURDER AND MAYHEM
11.1 Elections for President of Yugoslavia, September-October 2000
The election seems (as of early October 2000) to have been settled in Kostunica's favor, after massive demonstrations, including a mob setting fire to and looting the House of Parliament in Belgrade. Kostunica's victory may not be so sweeping or permanent as hoped, given that Milosevic is still in the country, that his friends are still in charge of key industries, that the Serbian (not Yugoslav) parliament is still full of deputies representing Milosevic's party, and that Kostunica is head of an 18-party coalition that may not last long. Also, Kostunica himself is a rabid nationalist, and may have takeover plans of his own, since he is dissatisfied with the way things were settled in Bosnia and Kosovo.
11.2 Probably peaceful: Croatia, Slovenia,
Slovenia is at peace and will probably remain so. No significant ethnic minority exists there, and Serb nationalists are not inclined to make a play for it, since it's not heavily Serb or Orthodox.
Croatia will probably also remain at peace. It's possible that the Croat-Muslim part of Bosnia will at some point secede from the Serbian part to join Croatia, in which case the Bosnian Muslims might go to war with Croatia.
Macedonia may remain peaceful, unless the ethnic Albanians (at 22% of the population) decide that independence is worth the kind of devastating war that they saw fought in neighboring Kosovo.
11.3 Potential disasters: Kosovo, Bosnia,
Kosovo is no longer fully integrated into Serbia, and has an overwhelming majority of ethnic Albanians who want independence. Serbia, of course, has such strong historical and emotional ties to Kosovo that it will not allow Kosovo to secede peacefully. This area will erupt into violence again, probably as soon as NATO peacekeeping forces depart, possibly earlier if either the Serbs or the Kosovar Albanians feel powerful enough.
Eventually Bosnia will probably split into the Croat-Muslim and Serbian parts, or even Croat, Muslim and Serbian, and then there will be a fight over who gets which territories.
Montenegro has been unhappy with Serbia's leadership for years, going so far as to boycott national elections several times. If the situation in Serbia worsens, so that there are military and economic reasons to secede, Montenegro will probably do so. Once again, Serbs have strong ties to Montenegro, and will probably not let it go without a fight.
Books
Alcock, John B., Marko Milivojevic and John J. Horton, eds. Conflict in the Former Yugoslavia: An Encyclopedia. Denver, CO: ABC-CLIO, 1998. Useful entries on places and people, plus a detailed chronological table for 1986-1997. Good for fleshing out details.
Doder, Dusko, and Louise Branson. Milosevic: Portrait of a Tyrant. New York: Simon & Schuster (Free Press), 1999. More or less chronological account of Milosevic's life and rule, with a little background on Communist Yugoslavia and earlier. Dense and sometimes choppy.
Kaplan, Robert D. Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History . New York: Random House (Vintage), 1993. An evocative history of the Balkans since the early 20th century. This is apparently the only book Clinton read about the Balkans.
Stanley, David. Lonely Planet: Eastern Europe on a Shoestring. 2nd ed. Hawthorn, Vic, Australia: Lonely Planet, 1991. One of the few books of basic travel information on the region.
Winchester, Simon. The Fracture Zone: A Return to the Balkans. New York: HarperCollins, 1999. Chronicles a trip from Vienna to Istanbul, via Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania, Macedonia, Kosovo and Bulgaria. Not a chronological sequence, but an interesting look at the area, especially after reading Doder & Branson.
Online information
CIA World Factbook for statistics on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia and Bosnia-Hercegovina. www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html
The New York Times, for the September 2000 elections.
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